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Neutral-Down: XLK leads the SPDR 11: SPY trend Normal: 1 big mover

October 1, 2026 · Data through the US close · Auto-generated from quantitative models

Final since . The numbers on this page do not change after that.

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  1. 0:00A quiet read. Market Conditions are unchanged at Neutral Down, 45.0 against 45.0 at the prior close. Mixed, conditions softening
  2. 0:13Under the surface, Macro Regime is supportive, while Trend still needs attention. One of the seven lights is green, so the backdrop is fragile and worth treating with care.
  3. 0:25S P Y remains above both its fifty-day and two-hundred-day averages, so the primary trend is constructive. Breadth is narrow, with four of the eleven sectors above the two-hundred-day average.
  4. 0:40Our macro economic indicator reads 71.9, which is Moderate Growth. Employment is the strongest part of it, and Inflation the weakest.
  5. 0:50Technology leads the sector table. Financials moved up 3 places, as shown by the movement column.
  6. 0:58What we're watching next. X L F (Financials) climbed 3 ranks to number 8. Watch X L F: seasonal score bullish (76/100), X L U: seasonal score bullish (87/100) for confirmation of the next rotation move.
  7. 1:19Sector Rotation Monitor is the dashboard these numbers come from. It covers global and European markets, commodities, bonds, U S industries, factors, and crypto. Built-in presets show how every group ranks today, and watchlists with configurable alerts tell you when a ranking you follow moves. It's free to try for fourteen days at sector rotation monitor dot com, so you can look at the data yourself and decide what it's worth to you. And if these briefings are useful, subscribing keeps them coming. This is general information, not personal advice.

Educational commentary, not investment advice. See full disclaimer.

Market Conditions are Neutral-Down (score 45.0/100): main risks: distribution red, credit red. Underlying SPY trend is Normal with MEI at 71.9/100 (MODERATE GROWTH) and sentiment reading NEUTRAL. Technology (XLK) leads at #1 with a Stable signal and score 70.7, while Real Estate (XLRE) trails at #11. 1 sector moved 3+ ranks today.

Market Conditions

Neutral-Down45/100

Mixed: conditions softening

Trend
Breadth
Distribution
Volatility
Credit
Internals
Macro Regime

Main risks: Distribution (red) • Credit (red)

Synthesised from trend, breadth, distribution, volatility, credit, internals, and macro inputs. See the Market Conditions tab for full detail on each light.

US Market Indicators

All indicators are based on US equity markets and economic data.

SPY Sentiment?

NEUTRAL

45.4/100

Macro Economic Indicator?

MODERATE GROWTH

71.9/100

Economic Regime?

Stagflation

growth -4.7 · prices +14.3 · too close to call

US Sector Rotation (SPDR 11)

RankΔSectorSignalQuadrantScore
1→XLKStableLeading71
2↑1XLIWeakImproving49
3↓1XLVWeakLagging46
4↑2XLEWeakWeakening44
5↓1XLCWeakLagging42
6↓1XLYWeakLagging38
7→XLPWeakLagging38
8↑3XLFWeakLagging34
9↑1XLUWeakLagging33
10↓2XLBWeakLagging33
11↓2XLREAvoidLagging32

Notable Changes

⚡XLF (Financials) climbed 3 ranks to #8

What to Watch

Sectors near a signal threshold or with elevated seasonal tailwinds.

  • ›XLF: seasonal score bullish (76/100)
  • ›XLU: seasonal score bullish (87/100)

Action Items

The macro economic indicator favours

Sectors that have historically done well when this reading looks like it does today. That is history, not a forecast.

XLV, XLP, XLU

Caution: Persistent Weakness

Sectors with an Avoid signal or in Weinstein Stage 4 (confirmed downtrend), excluding sectors currently favored by the economic regime.

XLI, XLE, XLY, XLF, XLB, XLRE

Want the full picture?

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