Daily Pre-Market Brief

Neutral-Down — XLE leads the SPDR 11 — SPY trend Normal — 2 squeeze setups building

July 20, 2026 · Auto-generated from quantitative models

Educational commentary — not investment advice. See full disclaimer.

Market Conditions are **Neutral-Down** (score 55.0/100) — main risks: distribution red, trend amber. Underlying SPY trend is Normal with MEI at 61.7/100 (MODERATE GROWTH) and sentiment reading NEUTRAL. Energy (XLE) leads at #1 with a Weak signal and score 69.3, while Technology (XLK) trails at #11.

Market Conditions

Neutral-Down55/100

Cautious — half size, defensive tilt

Trend

Breadth

Distribution

Volatility

Credit

Internals

Macro Regime

Main risks: Distribution (red) • Trend (amber)

Synthesised from trend, breadth, distribution, volatility, credit, internals, and macro inputs. See the Market Conditions tab for full detail on each light.

US Market Indicators

All indicators are based on US equity markets and economic data.

SPY Sentiment?

NEUTRAL

42/100

Macro Economic Indicator?

MODERATE GROWTH

61.7/100

Economic Regime?

Recession

US Sector Rotation (SPDR 11)

Rank	Δ	Sector	Signal	Quadrant	Score
1	→	XLEEnergy	Weak	Leading	69
2	→	XLREReal Estate	Improving	Leading	66
3	↑2	XLPStaples	Improving	Leading	61
4	→	XLCCommunications	Weak	Leading	59
5	↓2	XLFFinancials	Weak	Weakening	58
6	↑1	XLUUtilities	Weak	Leading	53
7	↓1	XLVHealthcare	Weak	Weakening	51
8	→	XLYDiscretionary	Weak	Lagging	46
9	→	XLIIndustrials	Weak	Weakening	43
10	→	XLBMaterials	Weak	Lagging	42
11	→	XLKTechnology	Weak	Lagging	40

Notable Changes

⚡XLP in TTM Squeeze (11 bars) — watch for breakout

⚡XLY in TTM Squeeze (15 bars) — watch for breakout

What to Watch

Sectors near a signal threshold or with elevated seasonal tailwinds.

›XLRE (Real Estate) — score 66, approaching Strong threshold (70)
›XLRE — seasonal score bullish (88/100)
›XLP — seasonal score bullish (85/100)
›XLC — seasonal score bullish (91/100)
›XLF — seasonal score bullish (89/100)
›XLU — seasonal score bullish (85/100)
›XLV — seasonal score bullish (86/100)
›XLY — seasonal score bullish (83/100)
›XLI — seasonal score bullish (86/100)
›XLB — seasonal score bullish (73/100)
›XLK — seasonal score bullish (90/100)

Action Items

Economic Regime Favours

Sectors historically outperforming in this phase of the business cycle.

XLV, XLP, XLU

Caution — Persistent Weakness

Sectors with an Avoid signal or in Weinstein Stage 4 (confirmed downtrend), excluding sectors currently favored by the economic regime.

XLY, XLB, XLK

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